Oil Prices Finish Lower for a Second Week as Supply Outlook Offsets Middle East Risks
LONDON, United Kingdom, November 14, 2026, ZEX PR WIRE, International oil prices ended the week lower for a second consecutive week as traders weighed geopolitical uncertainty against expectations of improved global supply. Although tensions in the Middle East continued to create concerns about potential disruptions, market participants also considered inventory growth and forecasts pointing towards a possible surplus in the coming months.
Brent crude settled at approximately $95.84 per barrel, ending Friday’s session nearly unchanged. US West Texas Intermediate crude fell 0.2% to $88.56 per barrel. Both benchmarks recorded weekly declines, extending the recent period of weakness in the energy market.
Supply Expectations Influence Crude Prices
The International Energy Agency has forecast a global oil surplus in the fourth quarter, reflecting expectations that available supply could exceed demand. Its outlook has become an important consideration for traders evaluating whether current geopolitical risks are sufficient to support higher prices.
The agency projected that global oil supply would decline by 4.8 million barrels per day during 2026 before recovering by 6.6 million barrels per day in 2027. Demand was projected to fall by 2.7 million barrels per day this year and increase by 2 million barrels per day next year.
These projections point to a changing balance between production and consumption. However, actual market conditions will depend on how quickly production returns, whether shipping routes remain accessible and how global economic activity develops.
US Inventory Growth Adds Pressure
US crude inventories increased by 4.7 million barrels in the latest reported weekly data from the Energy Information Administration. Higher inventories can indicate that supply is exceeding immediate demand or that refinery and export activity has changed.
Inventory movements are closely monitored because the United States is one of the world’s largest oil producers and consumers. A sustained increase in crude stocks can influence expectations about domestic supply availability and short-term price direction.
The latest increase does not independently establish a long-term surplus, but it adds to the broader supply concerns influencing market sentiment.
Middle East Developments Keep Risk Premiums Relevant
Geopolitical developments continue to complicate the outlook. Traders are monitoring the conflict in the Middle East, US policy towards Iran and the possibility of diplomatic progress.
Any disruption affecting oil infrastructure or shipping through important regional routes could reduce the amount of crude reaching international markets. Even when production remains available, transportation constraints can create delays and increase costs.
The market is therefore balancing the possibility of improved supply conditions against the risk that further disruptions could emerge.
Energy Markets Enter the Next Week With Conflicting Signals
The recent weekly decline suggests that supply expectations have gained influence over short-term pricing. However, oil prices remain sensitive to geopolitical announcements, inventory data and changes in global demand.
For energy companies, refiners, airlines and oil-importing economies, the direction of crude prices will remain important for operating costs and financial planning. The next stage of the market’s movement will depend on whether expected supply growth materialises and whether geopolitical risks become less severe.
